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The picture above is from this article that talks about the rising costs of Medicare. House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan has brought to light some of the issues with the current Medicare system. Although there has been much debate about this topic, is is sparking a necessary debate. Medicare is "financed through a combination of payroll taxes, premiums and general revenue. The problem is that spending has been growing faster than the economy and is projected to do so indefinitely."The number of enrollees has to 47 million, and the real cost per enrollee quadrupled, according to data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. The plan looks to raise the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 67 by the 2030s. Much of the concern about Ryan's proposal is that it proposes converting Medicare from a fee-for-service program into a "premium-support" system for everyone under 55 today. Another downside is that most elderly people would end up paying more for their health care than they would under the current Medicare system. Also the proposal, noted concern that his efforts to control Medicare costs are not paired with efforts to control health costs, and adversely affect affordability.
What portion so Ryan's budget cuts do you think we could incorporate to help control rising costs of health care? How can Ryan's budget cuts be adapted to make them more plausible?
I am not a big fan of people projecting numbers 30 years into the future because many things change within that time period. I do agree that the U.S. needs to stop spending and start cutting budgets. Even if we suffer in the short run, it will help the U.S. budget deficit in the long run. I'm interested to see how high the costs in healthcare will rise to by the end of this year.
ReplyDeleteAndrew makes a good point about projections which I agree with. I think of projections like the weather a couple days out it is fairy accurate but anything outside of that is completely worthless.
ReplyDeleteWhile I like the majority of Ryan's ideas I dont see how a measly two year increase in the age limit over the next 20 years will do anything worthwhile. However, I do agree with a complete overall of the system. In my mind Ankur's graph is a perfect representation as to why.
I agree with the two above about the questionability of long term predictions. One of the issues is the models behind those predictions. While not everyone will be able to understand complicated statistical models I wish they would include the basic assumptions behind them in articles more often. For example the graph shows enrollees reaching 88 million in 30 years, but it does not tell us about what life expectancy and population growth assumptions that was based on. I think they should reveal that and let people think about whether they think the assumptions are reasonable.
ReplyDeleteThis was an interesting article!
ReplyDeleteLike Andrew, Chris, and Erich, I feel that projecting numbers far into the future is ineffective. Projecting over 2 decades ahead would be more realistic in my eyes. But, it does get people thinking about the possible consequences, which can/should be a good motivator for action and reform.
ReplyDeleteWith the number of Medicare enrollees expected to double in the next 3 decades, the system will be put under an immense amount of pressure. Also, something else that was not mentioned, the overall health of our society is deteriorating--increasing the costs further. Obesity is a huge problem.
I also agree with Andrew and Chris on the projecting of numbers too far into the future. This was a very interesting article in that I do not have much background knowledge on this issue, so it was very eye opening.
ReplyDeleteBeside Paul Ryan being really attractive, I like that he's thinking about fixing this problem. Projections for the future were used to scare the public into seeing where Medicare could go in 30 years, a tactic for persuasion indeed. Of course there will be factors that affect the numbers, but for now, its a good indication that policies need to change. I honestly think all medicare should be privatized, so instead of tax payer money, that could be saved in people's income and put towards personal medicare. Older people should know how to save and should know to cover their own insurance costs out of their budget. Public health care is a completely different issue in my mind. I don't know if I'm making sense.
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