Posts
link
A recent survey shows that prices within the housing market won't begin appreciating again until 2014. Do you feel this is a reliable study to base this type of prediction on? What are your thoughts on what they are saying about the housing market?
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Not to say that this source isn't reliable, but they are no National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) when it comes to surveys. These California based companies conducted a survey, but they don't specify how many Americans were surveyed, what region the participants lived in, etc. The NAHB takes into account more economic indicators than this survey (which apparently relied heavily on consumer confidence) and includes data from all regions of the U.S. According to the NAHB, economic recovery in the housing market is going to begin visibly taking hold of the market in 2012, measured both in single family and multi family housing units. (http://www.nahb.org/reference_list.aspx?sectionID=138). I have the whole 2011-2012 projections study somewhere on this computer but I can't find it right now. The NAHB also provides housing data by region. While these stats don't have any projections, they at least show what regions are doing well and which are hurting. It's important to also realize that recovery isn't going to sweep the nation all at once, it's going to start in specific regions until the whole market is in recovery. (http://www.nahb.org/fileUpload_details.aspx?contentID=68179&fromGSA=1) All I'm getting at here is the the NAHB is as reliable as sources come for the housing market and they are not showing a wait of three more years before recovery sets in.
ReplyDeleteI like this analysis. Thus far economic growth in the United States seems to have been supported artificially through monetary and fiscal policy. At some point the U.S is going to have to raise these rates and that will have an impact the housing recovery. Additionally, 11.4% of houses in the U.S are vacant these houses, to an extent, will have to be filled before we will see an increase in price. I'm thinking supply and demand here.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Chris.
ReplyDeleteInteresting analysis. Well put Chris.
ReplyDelete